Averted lung cancer deaths due to reductions in cigarette smoking in the United States, 1970-2022.
Level 4 - case-series / case-control
Ecological and population-based demographic modeling study using national vital statistics registry data
PubMed 40131130 · doi:10.3322/caac.70005
What was done
Using 1970–2022 National Center for Health Statistics mortality data covering the entire US population, researchers estimated the number of averted lung cancer deaths and person-years of life gained from reductions in cigarette smoking. For each year, sex, race, and age group, the expected number of lung cancer deaths was modeled by multiplying expected mortality rates by the population at risk. Averted deaths were calculated by subtracting observed deaths from expected deaths, and person-years of life gained were estimated based on average additional years of life expected without lung cancer mortality.
What was found
Between 1970 and 2022, an estimated 3,856,240 lung cancer deaths (2,246,610 in men, 1,609,630 in women) were averted, and 76,275,550 person-years of life (40,277,690 in men, 35,997,860 in women) were gained, averaging 19.8 person-years of life gained per averted death (17.9 in men, 22.4 in women). Averted lung cancer deaths accounted for 51.4% of total declines in overall cancer mortality (60.1% in men, 42.7% in women). By race, averted lung cancer deaths represented 53.6% of overall cancer death declines among White individuals (62.8% in men, 44.6% in women) and 40.0% among Black individuals (44.4% in men, 34.7% in women).
Why it matters
This study quantifies the large-scale public health benefit of decades of tobacco control, demonstrating that smoking reductions drove more than half of all cancer mortality declines in the United States over a 52-year period.
Limits
The findings rely on mathematical modeling and counterfactual assumptions regarding expected baseline rates rather than direct counterfactual observation. The abstract reports no confidence intervals or uncertainty bounds and does not present data for demographic groups other than White and Black populations.