Global age-sex-specific all-cause mortality and life expectancy estimates for 204 countries and territories and 660 subnational locations, 1950-2023: a demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023.
Level 3 - non-randomized controlled study
Non-randomized population-level demographic modeling and longitudinal time-series analysis.
PubMed 41092927 · doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(25)01330-3
What was done
As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023, researchers estimated age-sex-specific all-cause mortality and life expectancy from 1950 to 2023 for 204 countries and territories and 660 subnational locations. The analysis synthesized 24,025 data sources (vital registration, sample registration, censuses, surveys, birth/sibling histories, and demographic surveillance systems) using a statistical modeling framework (OneMod) combining generalized linear modeling with non-parametric multivariate kernel regression to smooth across age and time.
What was found
In 2023, 60.1 million (95% UI 59.0–61.1) deaths occurred globally, including 4.67 million (4.59–4.75) in children younger than 5 years. From 1950 to 2023, the global age-standardized mortality rate declined by 66.6% (65.8–67.3), while annual deaths increased by 35.2% (32.2–38.4). From 2011 to 2023, mortality increased in high-income North America for ages 5–14 (11.5%), 25–29 (31.7%), and 30–39 (49.9%), and in Eastern Europe for ages 15–19 (53.9%) and 20–24 (40.1%). Sub-Saharan African estimates were revised upward for ages 5–14 (87.3% higher) and females aged 15–29 (61.2% higher), and downward for ages 50+ (13.2% lower) compared to GBD 2021. Global life expectancy rose from 1950 (51.2 years in females, 47.9 in males) to 2019 (76.3 in females, 71.4 in males), fell during COVID-19 in 2021 (74.7 in females, 69.3 in males), and rebounded by 2023 to 76.3 years (76.0–76.6) for females and 71.5 years (71.2–71.8) for males, with 61.8% of countries recovering to or falling below pre-pandemic mortality levels.
Why it matters
This study establishes that global life expectancy largely recovered to pre-pandemic levels by 2023, while revealing emerging mortality increases among young and working-age populations in high-income North America and Eastern Europe.
Limits
Findings rely heavily on demographic modeling, interpolation, and imputation where primary vital registration data are missing or incomplete. Data quality and completeness vary considerably by region and historical era.