Krebs-Smith · American journal of preventive medicine 2010 · Ecological time-trend analysis · n=?

Healthfulness of the U.S. food supply: little improvement despite decades of dietary guidance.

Cited 112 times in the scientific literature.

Level 4 - case-series / case-control

Ecological analysis using aggregate national food availability data (graded by design analogy)

PubMed 20153133 · doi:10.1016/j.amepre.2010.01.016 · record verified 2026-08-29

What was done

The authors evaluated the dietary quality and balance of the U.S. national food supply from 1970 to 2007 using the Healthy Eating Index-2005 (HEI-2005). Data sources included USDA food availability, loss-adjusted food availability, and nutrient availability datasets, along with U.S. Salt Institute data on salt sold for human consumption.

What was found

Total HEI-2005 scores improved by approximately 10 points between 1970 and 2007, but never achieved 60 points on a 0-to-100 scale. Meats and total grains were supplied generally in recommended proportions, but total vegetables, total fruit, whole fruit, and milk were supplied in suboptimal proportions with little change over time. Saturated fat, sodium, and calories from solid fats, alcoholic beverages, and added sugars were supplied in unhealthy abundance, while whole grains, legumes, and dark-green/orange vegetables remained severely undersupplied.

Why it matters

Despite decades of consistent federal dietary guidance, the baseline agricultural and commercial food supply remains fundamentally misaligned with nutritional recommendations, impeding population-level dietary improvements.

Limits

The study assesses national aggregate food availability and commodity disappearance data rather than actual individual consumption. Abstract reports no individual participant sample size or confidence intervals, and loss adjustments rely on macro-level estimates.

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