Phelan · American journal of preventive medicine 2010 · prospective cohort study · n=536

Prevalence and predictors of weight-loss maintenance in a biracial cohort: results from the coronary artery risk development in young adults study.

Cited 63 times in the scientific literature.

Level 3 - non-randomized controlled study

Non-randomized prospective cohort follow-up study

PubMed 21084075 · doi:10.1016/j.amepre.2010.08.008 · record verified 2026-08-27

What was done

Researchers analyzed data from the CARDIA study, a population-based longitudinal cohort of African-American and white adults. Among 1,869 overweight or obese participants without major disease in 1995, 536 (29%) lost ≥5% of their body weight between 1995 and 2000. Changes in weight, physical activity, behavioral, and psychosocial factors were then tracked from 2000 to 2005 to identify predictors of maintaining ≥75% of that weight loss over 5 years.

What was found

Of the 536 participants who lost ≥5% body weight, 34% (n=180) maintained ≥75% of the weight loss between 2000 and 2005, while 66% regained. Higher odds of successful maintenance were associated with smoking (OR=3.4, p=0.0001), history of diabetes (OR=2.2, p=0.04), African-American race (OR=1.7, p=0.03), increases in emotional support between 2000 and 2005 (OR=1.6, p=0.01), increases in moderate physical activity between 2000 and 2005 (OR=1.4, p=0.005), and less sugar-sweetened soft drink consumption in 2005 (OR=0.8, p=0.006).

Why it matters

This study provides population-based evidence that roughly one-third of individuals maintain substantial weight loss over 5 years, identifying modifiable targets including increased physical activity, emotional support, and decreased sugar-sweetened beverage intake.

Limits

The observational design cannot establish causality. The abstract does not distinguish between intentional and unintentional weight loss, which may account for associations with smoking and diabetes history. Behavioral and psychosocial predictors relied on self-report.

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