Alzheimer disease in the United States (2010-2050) estimated using the 2010 census.
Level 3 - non-randomized controlled study
Prospective cohort incidence data combined with demographic projection modeling
PubMed 23390181 · doi:10.1212/WNL.0b013e31828726f5
What was done
Researchers estimated Alzheimer disease (AD) dementia prevalence in the United States from 2010 through 2050. Probabilities of AD dementia incidence were determined from 2,577 detailed clinical evaluations among 1,913 individuals sampled from a disease-free base population of 10,800 Black and White participants. Weighted logistic regression calculated incidence probabilities by single year of age, race, and education level. These rates were combined with US mortality data, education statistics, and 2010 US Census Bureau population projections.
What was found
In 2010, an estimated 4.7 million individuals aged 65 years or older had AD dementia (95% CI: 4.0 to 5.5 million). By age subgroup in 2010: 0.7 million aged 65–74 years (95% CI: 0.4 to 0.9), 2.3 million aged 75–84 years (95% CI: 1.7 to 2.9), and 1.8 million aged 85 years or older (95% CI: 1.4 to 2.2). By 2050, the total number of people with AD dementia was projected to reach 13.8 million, with 7.0 million aged 85 years or older.
Why it matters
This study provides baseline and long-range US dementia projections based on 2010 census data, indicating that without preventive interventions, the national AD dementia burden will nearly triple by 2050, driven primarily by the oldest-old population.
Limits
The projection models assume constant age-, race-, and education-specific AD incidence rates over a 40-year horizon, not accounting for potential shifts in risk factors or disease-modifying treatments. Clinical incidence estimates relied on a single geographically defined cohort sample (1,913 evaluated individuals), and confidence intervals were not reported for the 2050 projections.
Cited by
- contradicts By age 85, approximately 50% of individuals will be diagnosed with Alzheimer's disease.