Participation and performance trends in 'Ultraman Hawaii' from 1983 to 2012.
Level 4 - case-series / case-control
Retrospective observational analysis of historical race records (by design analogy, non-clinical)
PubMed 23916227 · doi:10.1186/2046-7648-2-25
What was done
The authors analyzed age, overall race times, and split times for 98 female and 570 male finishers of the 3-day, 515-km Ultraman Hawaii (Day 1: 10-km swim, 145-km cycle; Day 2: 276-km cycle; Day 3: 84-km run) from 1983 to 2012. Simple linear regression was used to evaluate historical trends in participation, split and overall performance, the sex gap, and age among annual winners and top-three finishers.
What was found
- Participation: Female finisher numbers increased over time (r2 = 0.26, p < 0.01), while male finisher numbers remained stable (r2 = 0.03, p > 0.05). - Overall performance: Race times decreased significantly for female winners (r2 = 0.28, p < 0.01), male winners (r2 = 0.14, p < 0.05), top-three women (r2 = 0.36, p < 0.01), and top-three men (r2 = 0.14, p = 0.02). - Sex difference: The performance gap between sexes decreased from 24.3% to 11.5% (r2 = 0.39, p < 0.01). - Split disciplines: Cycling times decreased on Day 1 (r2 = 0.20, p < 0.01) and Day 2 (r2 = 0.41, p < 0.01) for men, and on Day 2 for women (r2 = 0.45, p < 0.01). Swim and run split times showed no significant changes. - Age: Male winner age increased from 28 to 47 years (r2 = 0.35, p < 0.01), but female winner age remained stable at 32 ± 6 years (r2 < 0.01, p > 0.05). Top-three finisher age increased from 33 ± 6 to 48 ± 3 years in men (p < 0.01) and from 29 ± 7 to 49 ± 2 years in women (p < 0.01).
Why it matters
This study provides long-term multi-day ultra-endurance triathlon benchmark data, showing that performance improvements were driven largely by cycling efficiency and that peak competitive age shifted into master-athlete categories (late 40s).
Limits
The study is restricted to a single event and only analyzed successful finishers. The female sample size was small (98 finishers over 30 years). Key unmeasured confounders include advances in cycling technology and aerodynamics, changes in training and nutrition, weather conditions across different race years, and individual athlete pacing strategies.
Cited by
- supports The Ultraman triathlon consists of a 6.2-mile swim, a 261-mile bike ride (90 miles on day one and 171 miles on day two), and a 52.4-mile double marathon run over three days.