Tomasetti · Science (New York, N.Y.) 2015 · ecological correlation study · n=?

Cancer etiology. Variation in cancer risk among tissues can be explained by the number of stem cell divisions.

Cited 1983 times in the scientific literature.

Level 4 - case-series / case-control

Cross-sectional ecological correlation study across tissue types (by design analogy, not clinical CEBM)

PubMed 25554788 · doi:10.1126/science.1260825 · record verified 2026-08-26

What was done

Analyzed the relationship between the lifetime risk of various human cancer types and the total number of normal self-renewing stem cell divisions maintaining homeostasis across different tissue types.

What was found

Lifetime risk across many different cancer types was strongly correlated (correlation coefficient = 0.81) with the total number of divisions of normal self-renewing cells maintaining tissue homeostasis. Based on this, the authors state that only a third of variation in cancer risk among tissues is attributable to environmental factors or inherited predispositions, with the remainder attributable to random replicative mutations.

Why it matters

It offers a quantitative model explaining why baseline cancer risk varies drastically across different human organs, pointing to intrinsic stem cell replication rates as a primary driver of tissue-specific variation.

Limits

The abstract does not specify the exact sample size (number of tissue/cancer types evaluated), confidence intervals, or specific datasets used. As an aggregate ecological correlation, it describes inter-tissue variation rather than individual-level etiology or causality.

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