A Novel Predictive Model to Estimate the Number of Mature Oocytes Required for Obtaining at Least One Euploid Blastocyst for Transfer in Couples Undergoing in vitro Fertilization/Intracytoplasmic Sperm Injection: The ART Calculator.
Level 3 - non-randomized controlled study
Non-randomized cohort study developing and internally validating a clinical prediction model
PubMed 30873117 · doi:10.3389/fendo.2019.00099
What was done
Clinical and embryonic data from infertile couples undergoing IVF/ICSI with trophectoderm biopsy for preimplantation genetic testing for aneuploidy were analyzed. Negative binomial modeling and adaptive LASSO were used for variable selection, and a multivariable logistic regression model was constructed to predict the probability of obtaining at least one euploid blastocyst. The model was internally validated using the holdout method.
What was found
The final model identified female age, sperm source used for ICSI, and the number of mature (metaphase II) oocytes as significant predictors (p < 0.0001). Female age was the strongest predictor (loglikelihood: 30.9; df = 2; p < 0.0001). The predictive model achieved an area under the ROC curve of 0.716. Testicular sperm use negatively modulated the probability across age groups (p < 0.001). The abstract does not report the participant count or absolute oocyte numbers.
Why it matters
The resulting "ART calculator" provides individualized pre-treatment and post-retrieval estimates of the mature oocytes needed to achieve at least one euploid embryo for transfer.
Limits
The abstract omits sample size, patient demographics, and center details. The model underwent only internal holdout validation without external testing, and it predicts an intermediate embryological marker rather than live birth rates.
Cited by
- supports In IVF, producing one viable embryo requires approximately 3 eggs at age 25 to 28, but requires roughly 10 to 15 eggs at age 40.