The COVID-19 pandemic: key considerations for the epidemic and its control.
Level 5 - mechanism / opinion, no new human data
Narrative review and expert synthesis without a systematic review methodology
PubMed 33932317 · doi:10.1111/apm.13141
What was done
The authors synthesized early pandemic epidemiological data, historical outbreak records, and seroprevalence surveys to evaluate transmission dynamics, mortality risks, and control options for SARS-CoV-2.
What was found
SARS-CoV-2 was reported to have an R0 of ~2.5, with transmission driven by superspreading (~10% of infected individuals generating 80% of new infections). Computed infection fatality rates were 0.5% for Denmark, 0.85% for Spain, and 0.3% for Iceland, with mortality risk concentrated among the elderly. Population seroprevalence remained low in Europe due to non-pharmaceutical interventions, with approximately ~8% of Danes infected across the first and second waves.
Why it matters
The paper contextualizes early SARS-CoV-2 transmission and fatality parameters against historical respiratory pandemics, highlighting the role of superspreading and age structure in epidemic control.
Limits
This is an unsystematic narrative review relying on early-pandemic observational and seroepidemiological estimates. The findings are specific to select European settings and predate widespread vaccine rollout and subsequent viral variants.
Cited by
- supports The mortality rate of COVID-19 is approximately tenfold higher than that of the common seasonal flu.