Ogurtsova · Diabetes research and clinical practice 2022 · Global epidemiological modeling study · n=215 countries and territories

IDF diabetes Atlas: Global estimates of undiagnosed diabetes in adults for 2021.

Cited 962 times in the scientific literature.

Level 3 - non-randomized controlled study

Global epidemiological modeling study based on a systematic review of cross-sectional surveys

PubMed 34883189 · doi:10.1016/j.diabres.2021.109118 · record verified 2026-08-28

What was done

The authors conducted a systematic search of peer-reviewed and grey literature to identify data sources reporting diabetes and undiagnosed diabetes mellitus (UDM) prevalence. For countries without in-country data, UDM prevalence was approximated by extrapolating the average estimates from countries within the same International Diabetes Federation (IDF) region and World Bank income classification. Stratified prevalence estimates were applied to adult population counts (aged 20–79 years) across 215 countries and territories to calculate global, regional, and national burdens for 2021.

What was found

In 2021, an estimated 44.7% of adults aged 20–79 years with diabetes were undiagnosed, representing 239.7 million individuals worldwide. The highest proportions of undiagnosed diabetes were in Africa (53.6%), the Western Pacific (52.8%), and South-East Asia (51.3%). The lowest proportion was in North America and the Caribbean (24.2%).

Why it matters

Nearly half of all adults with diabetes globally are unaware of their condition, predisposing them to preventable vascular complications. The findings indicate substantial disparities in screening and diagnosis, with the greatest surveillance gaps occurring in low- and middle-income regions.

Limits

The abstract does not state the number of primary data sources retrieved or how many of the 215 countries had direct empirical data versus extrapolated estimates. Reliance on regional and income-tier extrapolation creates uncertainty for data-sparse areas, and diagnostic definitions or testing modalities are not detailed in the abstract.

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