Age-Specific Mortality During the 2020 COVID-19 Pandemic and Life Expectancy Changes in the United States and Peer Countries, 1980-2020.
Level 3 - non-randomized controlled study
Level 3 by design analogy (longitudinal demographic and population cohort analysis).
PubMed 35191480 · doi:10.1093/geronb/gbac028
What was done
The authors compared life expectancy at birth (e0) across males and females in the United States and 18 high-income peer countries across 1980, 1995, 2010, 2019, and 2020. They used Arriaga decomposition on demographic mortality data to evaluate how age-specific death rates contributed to the widening US life expectancy disadvantage during the first full year of the COVID-19 pandemic.
What was found
In 2020, US male and female life expectancy dropped by 2.33 years (95% CI: -2.50 to -2.15) and 1.69 years (95% CI: -1.85 to -1.53), compared to peer-country average declines of 0.67 years (95% CI: -0.82 to -0.51) and 0.50 years (95% CI: -0.65 to -0.35). Between 2019 and 2020, the US disadvantage relative to peer countries widened from 3.49 to 5.15 years for males and from 2.78 to 3.97 years for females. Deaths before age 65 accounted for 55% of the life expectancy drop in US males and 40% in US females, compared to 24% and 11% in peer nations.
Why it matters
This study demonstrates that the acute mortality shock of COVID-19 in 2020 disproportionately affected the US compared to other wealthy nations, driven largely by elevated premature mortality in working-age adults rather than older age groups alone.
Limits
The abstract relies on aggregate demographic data from 18 peer countries without listing country-level variations, causes of death outside of aggregate age brackets, or subgroup disparities (such as race, ethnicity, or socioeconomic status) within the US.
Cited by
- supports The premature death rate in the United States is nearly twice the average of comparable peer nations.