Baxter · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 2022 · prospective longitudinal observational study · n=559

Initial impressions of compatibility and mate value predict later dating and romantic interest.

Cited 26 times in the scientific literature.

Level 3 - non-randomized controlled study

Prospective longitudinal observational study across three cohorts (graded by design analogy for non-clinical research).

PubMed 36322750 · doi:10.1073/pnas.2206925119 · record verified 2026-08-26

What was done

Across three speed-dating cohorts with longitudinal follow-up assessments (n = 559; encompassing college students, community adults, and men who date men; >6,600 total speed dates), researchers analyzed initial romantic impressions using the Social Relations Model. Initial desire was partitioned into actor effects (individual selectivity), partner effects (consensual mate value), and relationship effects (unique dyadic compatibility) to predict downstream romantic evaluations (romantic interest, physical attraction, desire to know better) and behaviors (direct messaging, going on dates) across >6,100 follow-up reports.

What was found

Meta-analyses across the three studies showed that partner effects (consensual desirability) and relationship effects (unique compatibility) were especially strong predictors of relationship initiation variables. The abstract reports total observations (n = 559, >6,600 dates, >6,100 follow-up reports) but does not provide specific numerical effect sizes, correlation values, or test statistics.

Why it matters

This study shows that relationship initiation is driven not only by consensual partner desirability (mate value) but equally by unique individual compatibility formed during initial interactions.

Limits

The abstract reports no numerical effect sizes, confidence intervals, or follow-up response rates. The findings rely on structured speed-dating environments, which may not generalize fully to unstructured dating contexts or online app-based interactions.

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