Case fatality rate for Ebola disease, 1976-2022: A meta-analysis of global data.
Level 3 - non-randomized controlled study
Systematic review and meta-analysis of observational outbreak and surveillance data
PubMed 37992431 · doi:10.1016/j.jiph.2023.10.020
What was done
Authors conducted a meta-analysis of global Ebola disease (EBOD) data spanning 1976 to 2022 across 16 countries and 42 outbreaks to estimate pooled case fatality rates (CFR) globally, by ebolavirus species, by region, and over time.
What was found
The pooled global CFR for EBOD was 60.6% (95% CI 51.6–69.4; 95% prediction interval 12.9–99.1). Lethality differed across species: Zaire virus CFR was 66.6% (95% CI 55.9–76.8), Sudan virus was 48.5% (95% CI 38.6–58.4), Bundibugyo virus was 32.8% (95% CI 25.8–40.2), and Tai Forest virus was 0% (95% CI 0.0–97.5). The CFR was 61.3% (95% CI 52.8–69.6) in sub-Saharan Africa versus 24.5% (95% CI 0.0–67.9) in the rest of the world. CFR declined over time but remained at 61.0% (95% CI 52.0–69.0) between 2014 and 2022.
Why it matters
This paper establishes a comprehensive global baseline for Ebola mortality, demonstrating that despite advances in care, case fatality remains high and shows major disparities between sub-Saharan Africa and high-resource settings.
Limits
The total number of individual cases is not reported in the abstract. Statistical heterogeneity is high (prediction interval spans 12.9% to 99.1%), confidence intervals for rare species and non-African cases are extremely wide, and underlying drivers of outcome variation (such as supportive care quality or therapeutic access) cannot be determined from the abstract.
Cited by
- supports Providing proper nutrition and supportive care to patients infected with Ebola significantly increases their chances of survival.