Wessells · Nature food 2024 · Global dietary intake simulation model · n=40 countries

Mandatory large-scale food fortification programmes can reduce the estimated prevalence of inadequate zinc intake by up to 50% globally.

Cited 20 times in the scientific literature.

Level 5 - mechanism / opinion, no new human data

Mathematical simulation and modeling based on macro-level food balance sheet data

PubMed 38898330 · doi:10.1038/s43016-024-00997-w · record verified 2026-08-28

What was done

Used Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) food balance sheet data to estimate current country-specific rates of inadequate dietary zinc intake. Modeled the prospective impact of improving existing or implementing new mandatory large-scale food fortification (LSFF) programmes for cereal grains across 40 countries identified as having potential public health concerns regarding zinc deficiency.

What was found

Accounting for existing LSFF programmes, an estimated 15% of the global population (1.13 billion individuals) has inadequate zinc intake. Implementing high-quality mandatory LSFF including zinc in the 40 targeted countries was estimated to reduce the global prevalence of inadequate zinc intake by up to 50%.

Why it matters

Provides quantitative modeling to support mandatory cereal fortification as a scalable strategy to address global micronutrient deficiencies. It helps policymakers prioritize national fortification mandates in vulnerable regions.

Limits

The findings are derived from theoretical simulation using macro-level national food supply data rather than measured individual dietary intake or clinical biomarkers of zinc status. The model assumes optimal programme implementation, fortificant quality, and coverage, and does not capture intra-household distribution disparities or individual variations in zinc absorption and bioavailability.

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