Delay of gratification and adult outcomes: The Marshmallow Test does not reliably predict adult functioning.
Level 3 - non-randomized controlled study
Prospective longitudinal cohort study
PubMed 39073534 · doi:10.1111/cdev.14129
What was done
Participants (n = 702; 83% White, 46% male) completed the Marshmallow Test at 54 months of age (1995–1996) and follow-up survey measures at age 26 (2017–2018). Using a preregistered analytic plan extending Watts et al. (2018), researchers assessed whether preschool delay of gratification predicted adult achievement, health, and behavior, adjusting for covariates and examining moderation by socioeconomic status and sex.
What was found
Preschool delay of gratification was not strongly predictive of adult outcomes. Although modest bivariate associations were observed with educational attainment (r = .17) and body mass index (r = -.17), almost all regression-adjusted coefficients were nonsignificant. No clear pattern of moderation by socioeconomic status or sex was detected.
Why it matters
This preregistered long-term follow-up demonstrates that preschool delay of gratification does not independently predict major adult outcomes once confounding factors are accounted for.
Limits
The study sample was predominantly White (83%), limiting generalizability. Adult outcomes relied on survey measures rather than objective clinical or administrative data, and the abstract does not report specific attrition rates or the full set of adjusted covariates.
Cited by
- contradicts Longitudinal follow-ups of Walter Mischel's marshmallow test found that longer delay times in children correlated with higher academic achievement, higher income, better health, and lower rates of incarceration and behavioral problems.