Mortality in the United States - Provisional Data, 2023.
Level 4 - case-series / case-control
Descriptive population surveillance and registry analysis (graded by design analogy)
PubMed 39116025 · doi:10.15585/mmwr.mm7331a1
What was done
Analysis of provisional 2023 death certificate data from the National Vital Statistics System to provide early estimates of annual mortality totals, age-adjusted death rates by sex and race/ethnicity, leading causes of death, and comparisons with 2022 data in the United States.
What was found
A provisional total of 3,090,582 deaths occurred in the United States in 2023. The overall age-adjusted death rate was 750.4 per 100,000, which was 6.1% lower than the 2022 rate of 798.8 per 100,000, with decreases observed across all age groups. Age-adjusted rates were 884.2 per 100,000 among males and 632.8 among females. By race and ethnicity, rates were lowest in non-Hispanic multiracial individuals (352.1 per 100,000) and highest in non-Hispanic Black or African American individuals (924.3 per 100,000). The leading causes of death were heart disease, cancer, and unintentional injury. COVID-19 deaths declined 68.9% from 245,614 in 2022 to 76,446 in 2023.
Why it matters
These provisional vital statistics offer rapid insight into national mortality trends, documenting a continuing post-pandemic decline in total and COVID-19 mortality while tracking persistent racial disparities in death rates.
Limits
The findings rely on provisional death certificate data that are subject to reporting delays and potential misclassification before final certification. The abstract does not report confidence intervals, cause-specific rate breakdowns beyond COVID-19, or state-level geographical variation.
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