Keyes · JAMA network open 2024 · prospective panel cohort study · n=36552

Depressive Symptoms in Adolescence and Young Adulthood.

Cited 38 times in the scientific literature.

Level 3 - non-randomized controlled study

Prospective multi-cohort panel study with longitudinal follow-up

PubMed 39141383 · doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.27748 · record verified 2026-08-31

What was done

This panel cohort study evaluated data from the Monitoring the Future longitudinal survey from 1990 to 2019, covering birth cohorts from 1972 to 2001 (n = 36,552; 50.5% female). Participants were recruited in 12th grade at approximately age 18 and followed up via mail and web surveys at ages 19 to 20 and 21 to 22. Depressive symptoms were measured using a top-decile cutoff (score >12 vs ≤12) based on self-reported affective items (e.g., "Life often seems meaningless"). The study examined associations between birth cohort and depressive symptoms across age periods.

What was found

In the most recent birth cohort (1997–2001), 19.1% (95% CI, 16.7%–21.4%) of females and 13.4% (95% CI, 11.2%–15.6%) of males had high depressive symptoms at age 18, the highest among all cohorts examined. For recent-cohort females, prevalence declined somewhat by ages 21 to 22 but remained elevated compared to prior cohorts; for males, prevalence increased through young adulthood. High depressive symptoms at age 18 strongly predicted high symptoms at ages 19 to 20 (males: OR 10.24 [95% CI, 7.01–14.97]; females: OR 9.16 [95% CI, 6.57–12.76]) and ages 21 to 22 (males: OR 6.20 [95% CI, 3.93–9.78]; females: OR 7.28 [95% CI, 4.92–10.78]). In the latest female cohort, 55.25% (95% CI, 38.11%–65.13%) of depressive symptoms at ages 21 to 22 were attributable to symptoms present at age 18.

Why it matters

These findings show that rising adolescent depression rates are not transient developmental phases and are carrying forward into early adulthood, indicating that the adolescent mental health crisis is transitioning into a young adult mental health crisis.

Limits

Depressive symptoms were evaluated via a brief self-report affective scale using an arbitrary top-decile cutoff rather than structured clinical diagnostic interviews. Baseline recruitment sampled 12th-grade high school students, excluding individuals who dropped out prior to grade 12. Follow-up ended at ages 21 to 22, so longer-term adulthood outcomes were not captured.

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