Stamatakis · Circulation 2025 · prospective cohort study · n=24139

Dose Response of Incidental Physical Activity Against Cardiovascular Events and Mortality.

Cited 41 times in the scientific literature.

Level 3 - non-randomized controlled study

Prospective observational cohort study

PubMed 40228066 · doi:10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.124.072253 · record verified 2026-08-29

What was done

Researchers analyzed 24,139 self-reported non-exercisers (mean age 61.9 years, 56.2% women) from the 2013-2015 UK Biobank accelerometry substudy. Daily energy expenditure and durations of incidental physical activity (IPA) categorized as light (LIPA), moderate (MIPA), and vigorous (VIPA) were measured using a machine learning-based classifier. Incident major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE: stroke, myocardial infarction, heart failure, and CVD death), CVD mortality, and all-cause mortality were tracked over an average of 7.9 years.

What was found

Across follow-up, 908 MACE, 223 CVD deaths, and 1,071 all-cause deaths occurred. Total IPA volume had an L-shaped association reaching a plateau at 35 to 38 kJ/kg/day, corresponding to hazard ratios of 0.49 (95% CI, 0.39-0.61) for MACE, 0.33 (95% CI, 0.22-0.52) for CVD mortality, and 0.31 (95% CI, 0.25-0.38) for all-cause mortality. Protective associations plateaued at approximately 14 minutes per day for VIPA and 34 to 50 minutes per day for MIPA. Median durations of VIPA (4.6 minutes per day) and MIPA (23.8 minutes per day) were associated with CVD mortality hazard ratios of 0.62 (95% CI, 0.46-0.83) and 0.50 (95% CI, 0.31-0.80), respectively. LIPA was significantly associated with reduced CVD mortality only above 130 minutes per day. One minute of VIPA was health-equivalent to 2.8 to 3.4 minutes of MIPA and 34.7 to 48.5 minutes of LIPA.

Why it matters

This study establishes dose-response relationships for daily incidental activity, showing that accumulating even small amounts of moderate or vigorous daily movement outside structured exercise confers substantial cardiovascular and survival benefits.

Limits

As an observational cohort study, residual confounding and reverse causation cannot be fully ruled out. Physical activity was measured during a single baseline accelerometry window and may not capture long-term habit changes, and UK Biobank participants are known to be healthier than the general population.

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