Population Attributable Fraction of Modifiable Risk Factors for Dementia in Turkey.
Level 4 - case-series / case-control
Cross-sectional survey data combined with external relative risks for population attributable fraction modeling
PubMed 40583126 · doi:10.1177/14713012251357162
What was done
The authors estimated the population attributable fractions (PAFs) of 14 modifiable dementia risk factors across early, mid-, and later life in Turkey using the updated 2024 Lancet Commission framework. Risk factor prevalences were calculated from the nationally representative 2022 Turkey Health Survey, and relative risks were obtained from published meta-analyses and the Lancet Commission report. Principal Component Analysis and communalities were used to correct for correlation between risk factors.
What was found
The overall weighted PAF for dementia in Turkey was 49.9%. Low education was the largest contributor in early life, physical inactivity was the leading contributor in midlife, and social isolation was the leading contributor in later life. The weighted PAF was higher in women (54.2%) than in men (44.3%), driven by gender differences in physical inactivity, depression, and social isolation.
Why it matters
This is the first study to apply the 2024 Lancet Commission framework to Turkey, demonstrating that approximately half of dementia risk is theoretically preventable and highlighting key national targets like physical inactivity and female-specific risk disparities.
Limits
The abstract does not state the exact sample size of the 2022 Turkey Health Survey. PAF modeling relies on causal assumptions and relative risks derived from global meta-analyses that may not fully reflect Turkish population dynamics, and relies on cross-sectional survey data rather than prospectively observed incidence.
Cited by
- supports A 2024 Lancet report found that addressing 14 modifiable risk factors could reduce Alzheimer's and dementia rates by 40% to 50%.