Best Rogowski · The Lancet. Planetary health 2025 · systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies · n=51

Long-term air pollution exposure and incident dementia: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Cited 37 times in the scientific literature.

Level 3 - non-randomized controlled study

Systematic review and meta-analysis of observational cohort studies

PubMed 40716448 · doi:10.1016/S2542-5196(25)00118-4 · record verified 2026-08-30

What was done

The authors systematically searched eight electronic databases (MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Library, CINAHL, Global Health, PsycINFO, Scopus, Web of Science) through Oct 23, 2023. They included primary observational studies of adults (aged ≥18 years) assessing quantitative associations between long-term (≥1 year) outdoor air pollution exposure and subsequent physician-diagnosed dementia. Effect estimates were harmonized to prespecified exposure increments and combined using inverse-variance weighted random-effects meta-analyses when three or more studies evaluated an exposure-outcome pair. Risk of bias and evidence certainty were evaluated using the Office of Health Assessment and Translation tool.

What was found

From 15,619 records, 51 studies met inclusion criteria and 32 were included in meta-analyses. Long-term exposure was significantly associated with incident dementia for: - PM 2.5: pooled adjusted HR 1.08 (95% CI 1.02–1.14) per 5 μg/m³ increase (21 studies, n = 24,030,527; I² = 95%) - Nitrogen dioxide: pooled adjusted HR 1.03 (95% CI 1.01–1.05) per 10 μg/m³ increase (16 studies, n = 17,228,429; I² = 84%) - Black carbon/PM 2.5 absorbance: pooled adjusted HR 1.13 (95% CI 1.01–1.27) per 1 μg/m³ increase (6 studies, n = 19,421,865; I² = 97%) No significant association was found for: - Nitrogen oxides: pooled adjusted HR 1.05 (95% CI 0.97–1.13) per 10 μg/m³ increase (5 studies, n = 241,409; I² = 44%) - PM 10: pooled adjusted HR 1.52 (95% CI 0.80–2.87) per 15 μg/m³ increase (4 studies, n = 246,440; I² = 82%) - Annual ozone: pooled adjusted HR 0.82 (95% CI 0.35–1.92) per 45 μg/m³ increase (4 studies, n = 419,972; I² = 69%) Three of 32 studies (9%) had a probably high risk of bias in one domain; overall certainty was rated as moderate.

Why it matters

This review synthesizes recent evidence encompassing tens of millions of individuals, establishing that common ambient air pollutants (specifically PM 2.5, NO2, and black carbon) are modest but significant population-level risk factors for dementia.

Limits

All included studies were observational, which precludes causal determination and leaves potential for residual confounding. There was high between-study heterogeneity (I² = 84–97% for the significant pollutants). Analyses for PM 10, nitrogen oxides, and ozone included relatively few studies (4 to 5 each) with wide confidence intervals.

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