Projecting the 30-year burden of obstructive sleep apnoea in the USA: a prospective modelling study.
Level 4 - case-series / case-control
Population simulation and projection model using secondary survey and cohort data
PubMed 40882656 · doi:10.1016/S2213-2600(25)00243-7
What was done
Researchers constructed an open cohort dynamic population simulation model to project the prevalence and case numbers of obstructive sleep apnoea (defined as an apnoea-hypopnoea index [AHI] ≥5/h) in the USA from 2020 to 2050 among adults aged 30–69 years. Baseline historical prevalence was derived from a published longitudinal cohort study, demographic structures (age and sex) were taken from US population data, and BMI distributions were drawn from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) and the Wisconsin Sleep Cohort.
What was found
By 2050, obstructive sleep apnoea prevalence is projected to experience a 34.7% relative increase, rising from 34.3% (95% UI 34.0–34.4) to 46.2% (95% UI 46.0–46.4), reaching 76.6 million cases. Female prevalence is projected to show a 65.4% relative rise, moving from 22.8% (95% UI 22.5–23.0) to 37.7% (95% UI 37.4–38.0; 30.4 million cases). Male prevalence is projected to rise by 19.3%, from 45.6% (95% UI 45.4–46.0) to 54.4% (95% UI 54.2–54.7; 45.9 million cases).
Why it matters
These projections suggest a major expansion of obstructive sleep apnoea burden over the next three decades, particularly among women, underscoring the need for expanded diagnostic and management infrastructure.
Limits
The findings are mathematical model projections rather than direct observational counts and depend on assumed future trajectories of age, sex, and BMI distributions. Projections are restricted to adults aged 30–69 years, omitting younger and older populations. The primary diagnostic cutoff (AHI ≥5/h) captures mild cases, and the abstract does not report clinical severity breakdowns. The study received industry funding (Resmed).
Cited by
- supports Between 18% and 20% of the US population has undiagnosed obstructive sleep apnea.