Decomposing the change of suicide rates in the United States 2001-2023.
Level 4 - case-series / case-control
Retrospective observational surveillance study analyzing cross-sectional national vital statistics across benchmark years
PubMed 40905268 · doi:10.1017/S2045796025100218
What was done
This retrospective observational study analyzed United States suicide mortality and population data from the CDC WISQARS database across four benchmark years: 2001 (n = 30,418), 2018 (n = 48,132), 2020 (n = 45,721), and 2023 (n = 49,014). The authors decomposed changing suicide rates across categories of age, sex, ethnicity, and suicide method.
What was found
The overall US suicide rate increased from 10.7 per 100,000 in 2001 to 14.6 per 100,000 in 2023, after temporary decreases in 2019 (14.4 per 100,000) and 2020 (13.8 per 100,000). Firearm suicides among White males were the primary driver, accounting for 25.8% of the increase from 2001 to 2018 and 51.6% from 2020 to 2023. The 2018–2020 reduction was largely due to decreases in firearm- and drug-related suicides among White males. From 2020 to 2023, firearm suicides among ethnic minorities (especially Black/African-American males) contributed 14.0% of the increase, and drug-related suicides rose 8.6% among White females aged 45 and older.
Why it matters
The paper identifies the specific demographic subgroups and lethal means driving long-term and post-pandemic surges in US suicide rates. It highlights firearms as the primary target for demographic-specific means-restriction strategies.
Limits
The analysis compares selected discrete benchmark years rather than a complete continuous time series. As an analysis of death certificates in WISQARS, it is subject to potential misclassification of cause of death (particularly distinguishing drug overdoses from suicides). The abstract reports no individual-level psychiatric, socio-economic, or lethal means availability covariates.
Cited by
- partial The frequency of suicide is increasing significantly across all communities.