Global, regional, and national trends and burden of diabetes mellitus type 2 among youth from 1990 to 2021: an analysis from the global burden of disease study 2021.
Level 4 - case-series / case-control
Epidemiological modeling and cross-sectional trend analysis using secondary GBD registry and survey data
PubMed 41199866 · doi:10.3389/fendo.2025.1626225
What was done
Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, researchers evaluated trends in the incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in youth aged 15–24 years from 1990 to 2021. Average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) or confidence intervals were calculated across global, regional, and national levels, stratified by sex, age subgroups (15–19 vs. 20–24 years), and Socio-demographic Index (SDI).
What was found
Global incidence of youth T2DM increased from 56.0 per 100,000 population in 1990 to 123.9 per 100,000 population in 2021 (AAPC 2.62, 95% CI: 2.42–2.81). The increase was slightly higher in males (AAPC 2.68, 95% CI: 2.47–2.89) than females (AAPC 2.51, 95% CI: 2.35–2.66). While overall incidence increased with age, the steepest rise occurred among youth aged 15–19 years (AAPC 2.72, 95% CI: 2.47–2.96). High-SDI regions demonstrated the greatest rate of increase in incidence (AAPC 3.48, 95% UI: 3.43–3.52). Absolute numerical data for prevalence and DALYs were not reported in the abstract.
Why it matters
Youth-onset type 2 diabetes has accelerated globally over the past three decades, leading to earlier cumulative metabolic burden and higher lifetime risk for complications. These findings emphasize the necessity of age-targeted preventive strategies and screening policies starting in adolescence.
Limits
The study relies on GBD modeling estimates derived from varying international data sources rather than primary longitudinal cohort observation. Distinguishing T2DM from type 1 diabetes in youth can lead to diagnostic misclassification in registry datasets, and specific numerical estimates for prevalence and DALYs were omitted from the abstract.
Cited by
- supports Diseases traditionally associated with aging, including cancer, heart disease, and diabetes, are increasingly occurring in teenagers and young adults in their 20s and 30s.