Global, regional, and national burden of brain and other central nervous system cancers from 1990 to 2021, and projections to 2035: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2021.
Level 4 - case-series / case-control
Modeled global epidemiological time-series and forecasting analysis (by design analogy, Level 4).
PubMed 41247817 · doi:10.1097/JS9.0000000000003497
What was done
Used Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 methodologies to estimate global, regional, and national prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for primary brain and central nervous system (CNS) cancers from 1990 to 2021. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models projected burden through 2035. Decomposition analysis assessed the impacts of population growth, aging, and epidemiological changes, while frontier analysis across 204 countries and regions examined reduction potential relative to Socio-Demographic Index (SDI).
What was found
Between 1990 and 2021, global CNS cancer prevalent cases increased by 124.50% and incident cases by 106.53%, with increases in corresponding age-standardized rates (ASRs). Absolute deaths and DALYs also increased, though age-standardized DALY rates declined and age-standardized mortality rates remained stable. Rates across all metrics were highest in older males and high-SDI regions. By 2035, projected global prevalent cases will reach 1.22 million (+24% from 2021), incident cases 0.43 million (+19%), deaths 0.31 million (+19%), and DALYs 10.27 million (+15%). Decomposition showed population growth and aging drove the increases in incidence, mortality, and DALYs.
Why it matters
Highlights that despite stable age-standardized mortality rates and declining DALY rates, overall CNS cancer cases and deaths will continue to climb through 2035 due to demographic aging, requiring targeted resources for older male populations.
Limits
Relies on modeled GBD data and imputation rather than direct observational registries for all regions, leaving estimates susceptible to reporting and diagnostic disparities. Specific tumor subtypes, histological grades, and treatment-level factors were not reported in the abstract.
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