Epidemiology of Parkinson's disease - Global burden of disease research from 1990 to 2021 and future trend predictions.
Level 3 - non-randomized controlled study
Population-level longitudinal epidemiological modeling using GBD data (by design analogy, not clinical CEBM)
PubMed 41584999 · doi:10.1016/j.prdoa.2026.100421
What was done
The authors extracted data on Parkinson's disease (PD) from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database spanning 1990 to 2021. They analyzed trends in age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rate (ASDR), and calculated the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Findings were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles, GBD regions, national levels, age, and gender, with projections modeled through 2050.
What was found
- Global prevalent PD cases increased 2.74-fold from 3,148,394.56 in 1990 to 11,767,271.97 in 2021. - Incident cases increased 2.20-fold from 417,134.69 in 1990 to 1,335,142.12 in 2021. - Males had higher prevalence, incidence, and mortality rates than females across nearly all age groups. - High-SDI regions had higher ASPR, ASIR, and ASDR values than low-SDI regions. - Asian countries, particularly China and Japan, had among the highest ASPR and ASIR globally. - Global ASPR and ASIR are projected to continue rising substantially through 2050 (faster in males), while ASMR is predicted to remain stable.
Why it matters
This study provides updated global benchmarking of the expanding burden of Parkinson's disease, showing a nearly three-fold increase in cases since 1990 and indicating substantial future resource needs as prevalence and incidence continue rising through 2050.
Limits
The findings rely on secondary GBD modeling data, which inherit regional variations in diagnostic access, coding quality, and reporting completeness. The abstract does not provide exact uncertainty intervals or numerical estimates for the 2050 projections.
Cited by
- supports For 2021, the estimated global prevalence of Parkinson's disease was 11.8 million people.