Thomas Perneger · American Journal of Epidemiology 1991 · paired case-control study · n=6,506 collisions

The Driver's Role in Fatal Two-Car Crashes: A Paired “Case-Control” Study

Cited 79 times in the scientific literature.

Level 4 - case-series / case-control

Paired case-control study design using registry data

OpenAlex W1898908442 · doi:10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a116017 · record verified 2026-08-26

What was done

This population-based paired case-control study analyzed driver characteristics associated with driving errors resulting in fatal motor vehicle collisions. Data from the Fatal Accident Reporting System were evaluated for 6,506 two-car crashes (81% of 7,993 eligible events), comparing the driver who initiated the crash (case) against the passively involved driver (control) within the same event to control for environmental conditions and traffic exposure.

What was found

Alcohol was the strongest predictor of crash initiation (OR = 11.5; 95% CI 9.57-13.9), with risk elevated at the lowest blood alcohol concentrations and rising as levels increased. Age showed a U-shaped association, with lowest initiation risk among drivers aged 40-49 years, rising to an OR of 3.35 (95% CI 2.72-4.13) in teenagers and 22.1 (95% CI 14.2-34.5) in drivers over 80 years. Additional risk factors were driving without a valid license (OR = 2.16; 95% CI 1.72-2.73), not wearing a seat belt (OR = 1.54; 95% CI 1.35-1.75), and having a crash within the prior year (OR = 1.21; 95% CI 1.07-1.38).

Why it matters

Using a paired within-crash design eliminates confounding by environmental conditions and exposure, demonstrating that fatal driving errors are strongly concentrated in specific high-risk driver demographics and behaviors.

Limits

The study is limited to fatal two-car collisions and may not generalize to single-vehicle or non-fatal crashes. Reliance on routine registry data introduces potential misclassification of crash initiation or underreporting of alcohol use, and 19% of eligible fatal crashes were excluded.

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