Samuel H. Preston · Demography 1984 · narrative policy essay · n=?

Children and the elderly: Divergent paths for America’s dependents

Cited 571 times in the scientific literature.

Level 5 - mechanism / opinion, no new human data

Level 5 by design analogy: narrative policy essay and theoretical commentary without new empirical human data.

OpenAlex W1967995457 · doi:10.2307/2060909 · record verified 2026-08-26

What was done

The author presents a conceptual argument and narrative demographic analysis examining how private family structure shifts and public policy decisions in the United States altered the relative well-being of children and the elderly over the preceding two decades.

What was found

The author notes a leveling off in age-related psychological distress, suicide, and income curves for the elderly over the prior two decades. In terms of specific figures, the abstract notes that the increase in federal expenditures on the elderly between 1977 and 1983 alone would equal well over $2,000 per child if distributed among the population under age 15.

Why it matters

This presidential address conceptualized intergenerational equity in public policy, arguing that public transfers to the elderly create trade-offs that indirectly disadvantage children.

Limits

This is a narrative essay and policy commentary rather than a primary empirical investigation. The abstract does not report formal statistical models, sample sizes, or causal controls.

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