Population growth and fertility patterns in an Old Order Amish settlement
Level 4 - case-series / case-control
Retrospective demographic directory and cohort analysis (by design analogy, non-clinical)
OpenAlex W1972321555 · doi:10.1080/03014460110075684
What was done
Demographic analysis of Old Order Amish settlement records from Geauga County, Ohio. Data on birth dates of mothers, fathers, and children were extracted from a community directory covering 1,337 families up to January 1, 1993. Total settlement sizes were estimated from directories spanning 1988, 1993, and 1998. The study assessed population growth, completed marital fertility rates, total fertility rate trends across birth cohorts (1909–1967), maternal age at first and last birth, age at marriage, and birth intervals.
What was found
The settlement population was 7,546 in 1988, 8,345 in 1993, and 9,572 in 1998. Completed marital fertility was 7.7 (SD 3.6) births per woman. Total fertility rate decreased by approximately one birth between 1909 and 1967, accompanied by younger maternal age patterns across more recent cohorts. Maternal age at the birth of the last child remained fairly constant across this period.
Why it matters
This study provides empirical demographic parameters for an isolated natural fertility population, demonstrating that minor historical shifts in fertility rate can occur via changes in childbearing timing without intentional parity-dependent family limitation.
Limits
Data are derived solely from self-published community directories without independent biological or demographic verification. The findings apply to a unique, culturally isolated religious group with strong birth control proscriptions and cannot be generalized to broader populations. Socioeconomic, health, and lifestyle covariates were not evaluated.
Cited by
- contradicts If every married woman in the United States reproduced at the marital age-specific rates of Amish women, the US total fertility rate would still remain below three children per woman.