Recent Demographic Trends in the Developed Countries
Level 4 - case-series / case-control
Level 4 by design analogy (cross-sectional aggregate ecological demographic surveillance; not clinical CEBM).
OpenAlex W2025867433 · doi:10.2307/3246629
What was done
Descriptive demographic surveillance analyzing aggregate trends in population growth, natural increase, total fertility rates, marriage rates, and life expectancy across Western Europe, Central and Eastern Europe, Russia, and the United States around the year 2000.
What was found
European Union population growth was 2.4 times lower and natural increase was 6 times lower than in the United States. The EU total fertility rate reached 1.50 children per woman in 2000 (0.6 below the US), ranging in Western Europe from 1.23 (Italy) to 2.08 (Iceland). Central and Eastern Europe exhibited lower fertility rates (1.11 in Armenia, 1.14 in the Czech Republic, 1.21 in Russia) and negative natural increase. Marriage rates rose in most Western European nations but fell across Central and Eastern Europe. Life expectancy generally increased across Western Europe and most of Eastern Europe, with the exception of Moldova and Russia, where male life expectancy declined by one additional year in 2000.
Why it matters
Highlights contrasting regional demographic dynamics at the start of the 2000s, characterizing sustained sub-replacement fertility across Europe, population stabilization driven solely by Western immigration, and severe mortality setbacks in Russia.
Limits
The abstract presents aggregate country-level registry and surveillance data without reporting sample sizes, statistical variance, specific data collection methods, or underlying confounding factors.
Cited by
- supports Births in the industrialized world are currently halving every 50 to 60 years.