Kristin N. Harper · International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 2010 · narrative review / theoretical framework · n=?

The Changing Disease-Scape in the Third Epidemiological Transition

Cited 203 times in the scientific literature.

Level 5 - mechanism / opinion, no new human data

Level 5 by design analogy: narrative theoretical framework with no original empirical data.

OpenAlex W2046815196 · doi:10.3390/ijerph7020675 · record verified 2026-08-27

What was done

A conceptual overview and narrative framework describing the historical progression of the epidemiological transition model, focusing on the characteristics of a proposed third transition.

What was found

The abstract reports no empirical data or quantitative findings. It presents a theoretical three-stage framework: the first transition associated with the adoption of agriculture approximately 10,000 years ago (resulting in infectious and nutritional disease patterns), the second transition occurring over the last two centuries (marked by declines in infectious disease and increases in degenerative disease), and an ongoing third transition defined by the resurgence of existing infections alongside the emergence of novel infectious diseases capable of rapid global spread.

Why it matters

The paper outlines a conceptual perspective for analyzing modern global health challenges, emphasizing that globalization is driving a dual burden of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases alongside existing disease burdens.

Limits

The abstract reports no primary empirical data, quantitative measurements, or systematic review methodology. It relies on high-level narrative categorization of historical periods rather than formal epidemiological modeling or statistical testing.

Cited by