The New Demographic Transition: Most Gains in Life Expectancy Now Realized Late in Life
Level 4 - case-series / case-control
Level 4 by design analogy (macro-level historical demographic trend analysis)
OpenAlex W2072486417 · doi:10.1257/jep.26.3.137
What was done
Analysis of historical demographic and labor force trends across the 20th and early 21st centuries for the United States and 16 other countries at comparable stages of development.
What was found
At the beginning of the 20th century, approximately 20 percent of increases in life expectancy were realized after age 65. By the beginning of the 21st century, this share rose to close to 80 percent and is asymptotically approaching 100 percent. As a result, expected lifetime labor force participation as a percentage of life expectancy is declining.
Why it matters
Because modern longevity gains are concentrated late in life rather than during working ages, the economic benefit of increased life expectancy on labor supply is diminishing without policy adjustments.
Limits
Data represent aggregate demographic trends across 17 high-income nations without country-specific breakdowns, confidence intervals, or formal statistical modeling details in the abstract, and findings may not apply to developing economies.
Cited by
- context Average human life expectancy was under 40 years a century ago and is currently in the upper 70s.