Larry Eugene Jones · National Bureau of Economic Research 2008 · theoretical review and economic model analysis · n=?

Fertility Theories: Can They Explain the Negative Fertility-Income Relationship?

Cited 159 times in the scientific literature.

Level 5 - mechanism / opinion, no new human data

Level 5 by design analogy: theoretical review and economic model analysis with no new empirical human data.

OpenAlex W2122913499 · doi:10.3386/w14266 · record verified 2026-08-28

What was done

The authors reviewed existing economic theories that attempt to explain the observed negative relationship between income and fertility. They evaluated mechanisms proposed in the literature, particularly the higher opportunity cost of time for high earners and heterogeneity in preferences between child-rearing and market-specific human capital investment.

What was found

The abstract reports no numerical or quantitative data. The authors found that existing theories are not robust, as generating a negative fertility-income relationship requires specific and not equally plausible assumptions.

Why it matters

This work demonstrates that conventional economic models of fertility decline rely on fragile theoretical assumptions, guiding future modeling and empirical research in demographic economics.

Limits

The paper is a theoretical review containing no empirical data, statistical testing, or sample size metrics in the abstract. Real-world predictive validity of the discussed assumptions is not quantified.

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