Recent decline in births in the United States, 2007-2009.
Level 4 - case-series / case-control
Level is by design analogy: descriptive population-based vital statistics registry and time-trend analysis.
What was done
The authors examined trends in United States births and fertility rates (births per women aged 15–44) from 2007 through 2009, with provisional counts through June 2010. The analysis compared 2007 final birth data with 2009 preliminary birth data from the National Vital Statistics System (NVSS), stratified by maternal age, race and Hispanic origin, live-birth order, and geographic state.
What was found
Total births in the United States decreased 4% from an all-time high of 4,316,233 in 2007 to 4,131,019 in 2009, with provisional counts indicating continued declines into 2010. Fertility rates fell for all women under age 40, with some of the largest decreases occurring in peak childbearing ages. Rates dropped across all major racial and Hispanic groups (largest among Hispanic women), across all birth orders (largest for third-order births), and decreased or remained flat across all 50 states and the District of Columbia, with the steepest drops in western and southeastern states.
Why it matters
This report documents the nationwide reversal in US childbearing following the 2007 peak, showing that the post-2007 birth drop was widespread across maternal demographics, geography, and birth order.
Limits
The analysis relies on preliminary vital statistics for 2009 and is strictly descriptive aggregate surveillance. The abstract does not report exact age-specific rates, point estimates per 1,000 women, or statistical confidence intervals, and it does not examine underlying causal factors or socioeconomic variables.
Cited by
- supports Approximately 710,000 fewer children were born in the United States in the past year compared to the peak in 2007.