Early animal farming and zoonotic disease dynamics: modelling brucellosis transmission in Neolithic goat populations
Level 5 - mechanism / opinion, no new human data
Level 5 by design analogy (mathematical transmission modeling informed by archaeological demographic estimates).
OpenAlex W2588428660 · doi:10.1098/rsos.160943
What was done
Researchers developed a mathematical model simulating the transmission dynamics of *Brucella melitensis* within early domestic goat populations. The model was parameterized using archaeological demographic data from Neolithic settlements in the Fertile Crescent to evaluate whether early farming conditions and herd management strategies could sustain the pathogen.
What was found
The simulation indicated that domestic goat populations could maintain *B. melitensis* circulation even under low baseline transmission rates. This persistence was driven by increased population density and altered herd demographics, particularly the selective harvesting of young male goats. Probable contact and trade between neighboring Neolithic settlements further enhanced pathogen maintenance. Specific numerical values and parameter estimates were not reported in the abstract.
Why it matters
The study offers a mechanistic framework linking the origins of animal husbandry and specific livestock management strategies to the establishment of endemic zoonotic reservoirs and subsequent human disease exposure.
Limits
The abstract reports no quantitative estimates or confidence metrics. As a theoretical simulation, conclusions depend heavily on model assumptions and indirect archaeological proxies rather than direct biomolecular or paleopathological evidence of infection.
Cited by
- supports The archaeological record indicates human health markers declined with the advent of farming, largely due to increased infectious disease from cohabiting with animals and higher population density.