Comparative fatality risk for different travel modes by age, sex, and deprivation
Level 3 - non-randomized controlled study
Level 3 by design analogy: retrospective national population-based registry and survey analysis.
OpenAlex W2755033723 · doi:10.1016/j.jth.2017.08.007
What was done
Researchers analyzed travel-related mortality in England from 2007 to 2012 by combining Office for National Statistics (ONS) data for cycling and pedestrian deaths (including pedestrian falls) and Stats19 data for driving deaths with exposure data from the National Travel Surveys (2007–2012). Fatality rates were calculated per distance travelled (fatalities per billion kilometers, f/bnkm) and per time travelled (fatalities per million hours of use, f/mhu), stratified by age, sex, mode of travel, and residential Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD).
What was found
From 2007–2009 to 2010–2012, male fatality rates per billion kilometers fell significantly across all modes: driving decreased from 2.8 (95% CI 2.7–2.9) to 2.0 (1.9–2.1), cycling from 32.1 (28.5–36.0) to 20.8 (18.1–23.9), and walking from 51.4 (48.5–54.4) to 36.7 (34.3–39.3). Fatality rates for driving and walking were generally higher in males than females. For males aged 17–20, time-based fatality rates were higher for driving at 0.76 (0.69–0.83)/mhu compared with 0.28 (0.18–0.42)/mhu for cycling, though rates were similar by distance. Age-specific risk curves were J-shaped for cycling, U-shaped for driving, and exponentially increasing with age for walking, with individuals aged 80 and older having rates an order of magnitude higher than all-age means across all modes. Compared with 17–20-year-olds, rate ratios were lower for drivers aged 21 and older (males) and 21–74 (females), but higher for male cyclists aged 55 and older and pedestrians aged 45 and older (males) and 65 and older (females). Residents in the most deprived quintile experienced higher fatality rates overall and for walking (highest rate ratios in pedestrians aged 35–64 and drivers aged 35–54), but not for cycling.
Why it matters
This study demonstrates that travel fatality risk varies more across age groups and sexes than between certain travel modes, and highlights that socioeconomic deprivation substantially increases walking and driving fatality risks.
Limits
The abstract does not report the total counts of fatalities or survey participants. Travel exposure estimates rely on sample-based National Travel Surveys, which may introduce sampling or recall error. Findings are specific to England and aggregated at the population level, precluding adjustment for individual-level behavioral, infrastructural, or vehicle-specific confounders.
Cited by
- supports The distribution of motor vehicle accidents by driver age follows a U-shaped function rather than a linear distribution.