H. Luke Shaefer · RSF The Russell Sage Foundation Journal of the Social Sciences 2018 · policy microsimulation · n=?

A Universal Child Allowance: A Plan to Reduce Poverty and Income Instability Among Children in the United States

Cited 139 times in the scientific literature.

Level 4 - case-series / case-control

Level 4 by design analogy (cross-sectional policy simulation using survey data; non-clinical).

OpenAlex W2788773136 · doi:10.7758/rsf.2018.4.2.02 · record verified 2026-08-26

What was done

The authors proposed converting the U.S. Child Tax Credit and child tax exemption into a universal, monthly child allowance based on principles of universality, accessibility, adequate payment levels, and higher support for young children. They analyzed 2015 Current Population Survey (CPS) data to simulate the poverty-reduction and fiscal impacts of the policy.

What was found

The model estimated that the proposed allowance would reduce child poverty by about 40%, reduce deep child poverty by nearly half, and effectively eliminate extreme child poverty. Annual net cost estimates ranged from $66 billion to $105 billion.

Why it matters

This paper provides quantitative cost and impact estimates for replacing tax credits with direct universal monthly payments to reduce child poverty in the United States.

Limits

Findings are based on static policy simulation modeling rather than real-world intervention data, which cannot directly measure behavioral responses such as changes in employment. The sample size for the 2015 Current Population Survey analysis is not reported in the abstract.

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