Review: Can Animals Predict Earthquakes?
Level 4 - case-series / case-control
Level assigned by design analogy: systematic review of retrospective case reports and anecdotal observations.
OpenAlex W2800991527 · doi:10.1785/0120170313
What was done
The authors reviewed 180 publications detailing more than 700 claims of unusual animal behavior preceding 160 earthquakes across more than 130 species. They evaluated the published reports based on magnitude-distance relationships, correlation with foreshock activity, and observation quality and monitoring duration.
What was found
Claimed precursor times ranged from seconds to months prior to earthquakes, at distances ranging from a few to hundreds of kilometers. Only 14 of the >700 records were continuous time series (the longest being 1 year, often published as short excerpts); all other reports were single, isolated observations. The probability density of reported animal precursor timing closely mirrored the occurrence pattern of seismic foreshocks, suggesting abnormal behaviors are likely reactions to foreshocks rather than predictive precursors of mainshocks.
Why it matters
This review demonstrates that the popular claim of earthquake prediction by animals lacks robust scientific backing and is driven largely by retrospective anecdotes. It proposes a standardized screening scheme to establish baseline quality for future claims in seismology and animal behavior.
Limits
The underlying evidence base consists almost entirely of retrospective, uncontrolled, and anecdotal reports with high data heterogeneity. True statistical evaluation was limited by the near-total absence of continuous longitudinal monitoring or non-earthquake control periods.
Cited by
- contradicts Dogs can sense an earthquake well before ground trembling occurs.