Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
Level 3 - non-randomized controlled study
Longitudinal demographic modeling and systematic synthesis of observational vital registration and survey data (graded by design analogy, not clinical CEBM).
OpenAlex W2899742633 · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(18)31891-9
What was done
The Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 estimated age- and sex-specific mortality and life expectancy from 1950 to 2017 across 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations (including 195 countries and territories). The analysis synthesised 8,259 data sources—including vital registration systems, sample registration, household surveys, censuses, and demographic surveillance sites. Probability of death before age 5 and between ages 15 and 60 were modeled through a life-table system, incorporating fatal discontinuities and HIV/AIDS mortality separately, and benchmarked against the Socio-demographic Index (SDI).
What was found
Globally, death registration completeness rose from 18.7% (95% uncertainty interval: 18.4–19.0) in 1950 to 58.8% (58.2–59.3) in 2015. Between 1950 and 2017, global life expectancy increased from 48.1 years (46.5–49.6) to 70.5 years (70.1–70.8) for males, and from 52.9 years (51.7–54.0) to 75.6 years (75.3–75.9) for females. In 2017, life expectancy ranged from 49.1 years (46.5–51.7) for males in the Central African Republic to 87.6 years (86.9–88.1) for females in Singapore. Under-5 mortality fell from 216.0 deaths (196.3–238.1) per 1,000 livebirths in 1950 to 38.9 deaths (35.6–42.83) in 2017, with 5.4 million (5.2–5.6) global deaths among children under 5 remaining in 2017. Adult mortality reductions were less pronounced, with stagnant or increasing rates in adult males in several countries.
Why it matters
This study provides a standardized global demographic benchmark across nearly seven decades, documenting substantial declines in childhood mortality alongside persistent geographic disparities and stagnation in adult male survival.
Limits
Over 41% of deaths globally remained unregistered by 2015, requiring heavy reliance on model life tables and indirect survey estimation. Historical data from earlier decades (particularly 1950–1970) and settings with sparse vital registration or demographic surveillance carry substantial modeling uncertainty.
Cited by
- context The country with the longest lifespan is Andorra.