Fertility Trends in the United States, 1980-2017: The Role of Unintended Births
Level 3 - non-randomized controlled study
By design analogy (non-clinical): demographic modeling and decomposition analysis using national vital statistics and survey datasets.
OpenAlex W2914833469 · doi:10.3386/w25521
What was done
The authors examined US fertility patterns from 1980 to 2017, focusing on the decline from 2007 onward. They analyzed demographic heterogeneity using data from the National Center for Health Statistics' Natality Detail Files. Using the National Survey of Family Growth, they modeled maternal characteristics predicting unintended births and applied this model to the Natality Detail Files to estimate the proportion of births that were unintended over time.
What was found
Fertility reached a historic low in 2017. Fertility declines were concentrated among young and unmarried women, whereas women older than 30 and married women experienced increases. The model estimated that 35% of the overall fertility decline between 2007 and 2016 was explained by reductions in likely unintended births, driven primarily by decreases among young women. No other specific rates or counts are reported in the abstract.
Why it matters
This analysis demonstrates that over a third of the recent US fertility decline reflects fewer unintended pregnancies rather than solely foregone or delayed intended childbearing.
Limits
Sample sizes for the survey and registry datasets are not reported in the abstract. Unintended birth status in the full vital statistics data is statistically predicted rather than directly measured. Confidence intervals and exact baseline or endpoint fertility rates are omitted in the abstract.
Cited by
- supports According to CDC and Pew Research data, the total fertility rate in the United States reached an all-time recorded low.