The Gap Between Lifetime Fertility Intentions and Completed Fertility in Europe and the United States: A Cohort Approach
Level 3 - non-randomized controlled study
Longitudinal aggregate cohort study (non-clinical design analogy)
OpenAlex W2916401603 · doi:10.1007/s11113-019-09516-3
What was done
The authors used an aggregate cohort approach to compare lifetime fertility intentions with completed fertility across 19 European countries and the United States. They analyzed survey data from the Fertility and Family Surveys conducted in the 1990s for women aged 20 to 24 (born in the early 1970s) regarding their mean intended number of children and intended childlessness. These baseline intentions were compared against aggregate completed cohort fertility and actual childlessness measures for the same cohorts around age 40, stratified by country and educational level.
What was found
The abstract does not report specific numerical values or confidence intervals. Across all analyzed countries, completed cohort fertility was lower than earlier cohort intentions, and actual childlessness was higher than intended. The gap between intended and actual childlessness was widest in Southern European and German-speaking countries, and smallest in Central and Eastern European countries. The aggregate gap between fertility intentions and completed fertility was largest among highly educated women in most countries.
Why it matters
This study demonstrates that the gap between fertility desires and realized childbearing is a consistent cohort-level phenomenon across industrialized countries, shaped heavily by educational attainment and regional institutional contexts.
Limits
The abstract provides only aggregate cohort comparisons rather than longitudinal panel tracking of specific individuals over time. No numerical sample sizes, effect sizes, or statistical test metrics are reported in the abstract. The findings reflect cohorts born in the early 1970s and may not fully generalize to younger cohorts facing different economic and policy environments.
Cited by
- supports Approximately 90% of people at some point in life either have or want to have children.
- context Late marriage is the number one predictor of having fewer children than desired.