The importance of municipal and agricultural demands in future water shortages in the United States
Level 5 - mechanism / opinion, no new human data
Level 5 by design analogy (predictive hydro-economic simulation and modeling study, not clinical CEBM).
OpenAlex W2951024681 · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab2b76
What was done
The authors modeled future changes in water yield and sector-specific water demand across US water basins through 2060. They evaluated the likelihood of water shortages across domestic, public, industrial, commercial, thermoelectric, and agricultural sectors, as well as the impact of adaptation approaches such as water-use efficiency improvements and inter-sectoral water transfers.
What was found
Without groundwater mining, over 45.8 million people in the Southwest, central Great Plains, and southern California would currently face regular water shortages; this is projected to reach over 136.2 million people by 2060. Reduced water yield was the primary driver of shortages, impacting 80% of US water basins, with nearly half of basins in the American West projected to see increased shortages. Domestic and public withdrawals are projected to rise, while industrial, commercial, and thermoelectric withdrawals remain steady. The Colorado River and Rio Grande regions showed the largest percentage increases in municipal demand alongside the largest percentage decreases in water yield. Meeting municipal demand via agricultural transfers would require municipal volumes equal to 25% to 50% of agricultural use in northern New Mexico, parts of Utah, Nevada, and Washington, and up to six times agricultural use in northern Arizona and eastern Texas.
Why it matters
This study quantifies where population growth and climate-driven water yield reductions will place the greatest stress on US water supplies. It highlights that maintaining municipal supplies in arid regions will likely require substantial reallocation of water away from agriculture.
Limits
The abstract does not specify the exact number of water basins analyzed, the underlying climate emissions scenarios, or the hydrological models used. Projections depend heavily on long-term assumptions about population growth, climate trajectories, and groundwater depletion rates, and do not report confidence intervals or economic costs of water transfers.
Cited by
- context Consumer domestic water usage accounts for approximately 5% of all water use.