Sydney Evans · Heliyon 2019 · Environmental cumulative risk assessment modeling study · n=?

Cumulative risk analysis of carcinogenic contaminants in United States drinking water

Cited 73 times in the scientific literature.

Level 4 - case-series / case-control

Ecological risk assessment and mathematical modeling using secondary monitoring data (by design analogy, not clinical CEBM)

OpenAlex W2974253072 · doi:10.1016/j.heliyon.2019.e02314 · record verified 2026-08-26

What was done

The authors performed a cumulative risk analysis of carcinogenic contaminant occurrence in United States tap water using monitoring data from 2010 to 2017 to estimate national and state-level lifetime cancer risks and case burdens.

What was found

The model estimated that over 100,000 lifetime cancer cases could be attributable to carcinogenic contaminants in U.S. drinking water, driven primarily by arsenic, disinfection byproducts, and radioactive pollutants. State-level cumulative cancer risk ranged between 1 × 10⁻⁴ and 1 × 10⁻³. The overall national attributable risk was approximately 4 × 10⁻⁴, two orders of magnitude above the standard de minimis threshold of 1 × 10⁻⁶ (one in a million).

Why it matters

The study models the aggregate carcinogenic burden of multi-contaminant drinking water exposures across the U.S., demonstrating that cumulative exposure risks substantially exceed standard single-pollutant safety benchmarks.

Limits

The abstract provides modeled theoretical risk estimates rather than observed clinical or epidemiological cancer outcomes. It does not state the exact number of water systems, water samples, or specific risk equations evaluated. Risk extrapolation assumes standard additive effects and lifetime exposure consistency, which may not capture real-world toxicological interactions or localized exposure variations.

Cited by