Agustina Paglayan · American Political Science Review 2020 · historical panel study (difference-in-differences and interrupted time series) · n=109 countries

The Non-Democratic Roots of Mass Education: Evidence from 200 Years

Cited 67 times in the scientific literature.

Level 3 - non-randomized controlled study

Longitudinal historical panel analysis (by design analogy, not clinical CEBM)

OpenAlex W3039314724 · doi:10.1017/s0003055420000647 · record verified 2026-08-31

What was done

Analyzed historical panel datasets covering 109 countries across 200 years to examine the relationship between democratization and primary school enrollment rates. The author applied difference-in-differences and interrupted time series models to assess the effects of democratic transitions and evaluated whether baseline access to education conditioned the response.

What was found

Democratization had little or no average effect on primary school enrollment rates. State-controlled primary schooling typically emerged approximately one century before democratization, and in three-fourths (75%) of countries that democratized, a majority of the population already had primary education access prior to the transition. Democratization expanded primary schooling only under the uncommon baseline condition where a majority lacked access beforehand. No specific numerical effect sizes or confidence intervals were reported in the abstract.

Why it matters

Challenges widespread political economy assumptions that mass education expansion is primarily driven by democratization, showing instead that autocratic regimes historically drove mass schooling long before democratic transitions.

Limits

The abstract provides no point estimates, standard errors, or observation counts beyond country totals. Findings rely on historical observational data spanning two centuries, subject to potential measurement error and historical confounding.

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