Preferences, Partners, and Parenthood: Linking Early Fertility Desires, Marriage Timing, and Achieved Fertility
Level 3 - non-randomized controlled study
Level 3 by design analogy (longitudinal cohort analysis of survey data).
OpenAlex W3101151661 · doi:10.1007/s13524-020-00927-y
What was done
The authors analyzed data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 (NLSY79) cohort to assess how early fertility desires, education, and marriage timing relate to achieved fertility and parenthood in US men and women. They decomposed fertility underachievement into two distinct pathways: entry into parenthood versus completed parity among parents.
What was found
The abstract reports directional associations without numerical effect sizes, percentages, or confidence intervals. Highly educated women (bachelor's degree) who desired three or more children were less likely to become mothers compared to women with identical desires who did not attend college; however, conditional on entering motherhood, completed family size did not differ by education. A comparable gap was not found among men. Postponing marriage past age 30 was associated with lower rates of entering parenthood for both sexes, but did not reduce parity among those who became parents.
Why it matters
These findings suggest that the gap between desired and achieved fertility among educated individuals and late-marriers stems primarily from barriers to entering parenthood rather than constrained parity once childbearing begins, pointing to social and partnership dynamics over purely biological constraints.
Limits
The abstract provides no sample size, effect estimates, or confidence intervals. Findings are based on a single US birth cohort (NLSY79) and rely on observational longitudinal data that cannot definitively establish causality between marriage timing and childbearing outcomes.
Cited by
- supports Longitudinal survey data show that marrying before age 27 is a strong predictor of closing the gap between early desired family size and final completed family size.
- partial Late marriage is the number one predictor of having fewer children than desired.