Can Policies Stall the Fertility Fall? A Systematic Review of the (Quasi‐) Experimental Literature
Level 1 - systematic review of randomized trials
Level 1 by design analogy: systematic review of experimental and quasi-experimental policy studies.
OpenAlex W3203572722 · doi:10.1111/padr.12431
What was done
A systematic review was conducted to evaluate the causal impact of family policies on fertility across Europe, the United States, Canada, and Australia between 1970 and 2021. The search focused specifically on empirical literature using experimental or quasi-experimental designs evaluating reforms in parental leave, childcare provision, healthcare services (including assisted reproduction), and universal cash transfers. Thirty-five studies met the inclusion criteria.
What was found
The abstract reports qualitative directions of effects without specific numerical values. Childcare expansions consistently increased completed fertility, whereas universal cash transfers generated only temporary timing shifts in births. Newer evidence on parental leave expansions, particularly in Central Europe, showed larger positive fertility effects than older literature suggested, with disproportionate benefits observed among higher-earning couples. Subsidizing assisted reproductive treatments showed promise of increasing birth rates specifically for women over age 35.
Why it matters
This synthesis provides policymakers with a causal evidence base demonstrating that structural supports, such as subsidized childcare, are more effective at sustaining completed fertility than temporary cash transfers.
Limits
The abstract provides no quantitative effect sizes, pooled metrics, or confidence intervals. The geographic focus is restricted to high-income Western countries (Europe, North America, Australia), limiting generalizability to low- and middle-income regions. The underlying studies rely heavily on quasi-experimental policy reforms with substantial heterogeneity in baseline welfare architectures.
Cited by
- context Empirical studies looking at pronatalist cash transfer policies by parity show that cash incentives have the largest positive effect on first birth rates rather than higher-order births.