Re-assessing global municipal solid waste generation
Level 4 - case-series / case-control
Level 4 by design analogy (cross-sectional global data synthesis and statistical/material flow modeling, non-clinical).
OpenAlex W4210635514 · doi:10.1177/0734242x221074116
What was done
The authors used regression analysis and material flow analysis (MFA) to harmonize inconsistent global waste datasets and estimate global total waste and municipal solid waste (MSW) generation and disposal patterns for 2017–2019, alongside business-as-usual projections through 2050.
What was found
Total global waste in 2017 was estimated at approximately 20 billion tonnes (2.63 tonnes per capita per year) and is projected to reach 46 billion tonnes by 2050 under business-as-usual conditions. Global MSW generation in 2019 was estimated between 2.3 and 3.1 billion tonnes (mean 2.7 billion tonnes), representing a 30% to 50% increase since 2004. By 2050, MSW is projected to reach 2.89–4.54 billion tonnes (a 26%–45% increase over 2019). Approximately one-third of all generated MSW is not collected, and nearly 42% is managed via open dumping or uncontrolled burning.
Why it matters
This study provides standardized global estimates correcting for differing international reporting definitions, highlighting critical gaps in municipal collection and sound disposal infrastructure needed for circular economy policies.
Limits
The abstract does not disclose the specific number of country data points or underlying datasets modeled. Estimates depend on modeling assumptions and the reliability of heterogeneous national reporting, and projections assume continuation of business-as-usual trends without accounting for unforeseen regulatory or technological shifts.
Cited by
- partial Approximately 2 billion tons of municipal waste and 190 billion tons of mining waste are produced globally each year.