Less Partnering, Less Children, or Both? Analysis of the Drivers of First Birth Decline in Finland Since 2010
Level 3 - non-randomized controlled study
Longitudinal population register cohort analyzed by design analogy.
OpenAlex W4226441454 · doi:10.1007/s10680-022-09605-8
What was done
The authors examined changes in union and first-birth dynamics from 2000 through 2018 in Finland using nationwide population register data. Using an incidence-based multistate model, they estimated yearly age-specific transition probabilities between singlehood, cohabitation, marriage, and first births among childless individuals aged 15 to 45 years. Counterfactual simulations were used to assess the relative contributions of within-union fertility rates versus union formation and dissolution dynamics to the decline in first births.
What was found
After 2010, fertility rates within unions declined, cohabitation dissolutions increased, and transitions to marriage declined. Counterfactual simulations indicated that fertility within unions accounted for approximately three-quarters of the post-2010 first birth decline: lower fertility among cohabiting individuals accounted for 42%, lower fertility among married individuals accounted for 13%, and declining fertility rates among couples entering cohabitation accounted for 17%. By contrast, changing union dynamics explained about one-quarter of the decline, driven by decreasing marriage rates (19%), decreasing cohabitation rates (2% to 4%), and higher union dissolution rates (6%). The drop in first births was steeper in lower social strata, but decreasing within-union first birth transitions was the dominant driver across all strata.
Why it matters
This study demonstrates that the Nordic fertility decline is primarily driven by partnered couples postponing or foregoing first births rather than an inability to form romantic partnerships. This pinpoints within-union decision-making as the primary target for fertility-related family policy.
Limits
The abstract does not state the exact sample size or total number of person-years. Findings from Finnish register data may not generalize to countries with different socioeconomic or welfare contexts. Register data do not measure qualitative intentions, biological fecundity, or psychosocial reasons for postponing childbearing.
Cited by
- supports First births account for the majority of the fertility decline in industrialized countries.