Florence Pendrill · Science 2022 · pantropical evidence synthesis · n=?

Disentangling the numbers behind agriculture-driven tropical deforestation

Cited 549 times in the scientific literature.

Level 5 - mechanism / opinion, no new human data

Level 5 by design analogy; narrative and expert synthesis of non-clinical environmental datasets.

OpenAlex W4295077776 · doi:10.1126/science.abm9267 · record verified 2026-08-28

What was done

The authors synthesized pantropical evidence to evaluate the rates, extent, and mechanisms by which agriculture drove tropical deforestation between 2011 and 2015.

What was found

Agriculture accounted for 90 to 99% of deforestation across the tropics from 2011 to 2015. However, only 45 to 65% of this deforested land transitioned into productive agriculture within a few years.

Why it matters

Because a substantial fraction of cleared forest does not quickly become productive farmland, supply-chain measures targeting commodities must be integrated with broader landscape governance.

Limits

The abstract does not report the number of underlying studies or precise search protocols. Notable evidence gaps remain for tropical dry forests, forests across Africa, commodity-specific land-use dynamics, and temporal deforestation trends.

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