The relationship between changes in the korean fertility rate and policies to encourage fertility
Level 3 - non-randomized controlled study
Longitudinal ecological study across 250 administrative units (graded by design analogy for non-clinical policy research).
OpenAlex W4311667655 · doi:10.1186/s12889-022-14722-4
What was done
The authors analyzed total fertility rate data from 250 South Korean local governments from 2014 to 2018 paired with a casebook of local birth promotion policies. Descriptive statistical analysis and latent growth modeling were conducted using SPSS 25.0 and M-plus 8.0, with an unconditional quadratic function change model selected as the final analytical framework.
What was found
The initial fertility rate, linear rate of change, and quadratic rate of change were statistically significant, showing that the decline in fertility accelerated over time and varied significantly across local governments. Among birth promotion policies, only in-kind policies had a statistically significant association with the initial level of fertility, where a higher number of in-kind policies corresponded to higher fertility rates. The abstract reports no numerical coefficients, effect sizes, or p-values.
Why it matters
South Korea maintains the lowest fertility rate among OECD nations despite persistent policy interventions. This study examines longitudinal regional trajectories and identifies in-kind support programs as the sole policy type positively associated with baseline fertility levels across administrative areas.
Limits
The study relies on aggregate ecological data across local governments rather than individual-level reproductive decisions. The observation window is brief (2014–2018), specific details of other non-significant policy types are omitted from the abstract, potential confounding regional factors are unaddressed, and in-kind policies only correlated with initial fertility levels rather than altering the trajectory of decline over time.
Cited by
- contradicts The South Korean marriage rate began rising for the first time in decades immediately following new government financial incentives.