Evolving Fertility Goals and Behaviors in Current U.S. Childbearing Cohorts
Level 3 - non-randomized controlled study
Level 3 by design analogy (synthetic cohort analysis of repeated cross-sectional surveys), not clinical CEBM.
OpenAlex W4315476825 · doi:10.1111/padr.12535
What was done
Researchers constructed synthetic cohorts of U.S. men and women across reproductive ages using multiple cycles of the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG). They evaluated cross-cohort and within-cohort trajectories of achieved fertility, intended parity, and unfulfilled fertility desires.
What was found
Recent cohorts achieved fewer births at younger ages compared to earlier cohorts at identical ages, but intended parity remained steady at around 2 children, with childlessness intentions rarely exceeding 15%. The abstract notes weak evidence of an expanding fertility gap in the early 30s. Among low-parity individuals in their early 40s, women were decreasingly likely to maintain unfulfilled fertility desires or intentions, whereas low-parity men were increasingly likely to intend future children. Exact numerical values and statistical test metrics were not reported in the abstract.
Why it matters
These findings indicate that ongoing U.S. fertility declines reflect difficulties in realizing early fertility intentions or delays in childbearing timing rather than a societal shift toward desiring smaller families.
Limits
The abstract does not report the sample size or specific survey years examined. The study uses synthetic cohorts derived from repeated cross-sectional surveys rather than a true longitudinal panel tracking the same individuals over time. Specific structural or economic drivers preventing individuals from meeting fertility goals were not quantified in the abstract.
Cited by
- context Under current US fertility patterns, 40% of 15-year-old females in the US will never become mothers.